If there is a single facet of public opinion where perception often triumphs over reality, it’s crime. Examine any poll where local voters are asked to prioritize their concerns, and crime almost always finishes first.
Even when it’s down, like it is in San Antonio.
Violent crimes were down almost 3% in 2024 after declining by more than 9% in 2023, according to San Antonio Police Department documents obtained by the San Antonio Express-News. Homicides declined by more than 22%. That is a significant reduction.
The newspaper’s teasing headline made me think the article contained some previously undisclosed bombshell, an unwelcome one. But the news is that violent crime is trending down. Yet I bet many of you, and many more in the city, are not so sure to take the news at face value.
One reason for public skepticism about positive crime trends is that authorities make little effort to disseminate data when the trends are worrisome. Short of a crisis, you’ll never see a mayor or police chief call a press conference to announce that, once again, homicides are up year over year.
Fortunately, the final report to be released with Mayor Ron Nirenberg in office and Police Chief William McManus extending his long tenure on the job, is one city officials can use to tout San Antonio and to build greater confidence in local authorities and institutions.
Property crime, meanwhile, also is down. Vehicle thefts, in particular, are down almost 35%. That’s remarkable. Yet my perception is that property crime is rampant. I subscribe to a neighborhood alert service, which scrapes police reports and peppers me with daily bulletins on violent and property crimes that occur within one mile of our Southtown home.
People, lock your vehicle doors and get those online delivery packages off the porch and inside the front door as soon as possible. We seldom read media reports on thievery, but it appears to be happening with such frequency it would be beyond the reach of any police department to respond to all reported thefts in our part of town.
High profile crimes widely reported in the local media leave a far more lasting impression than positive data releases. That’s why the recent murders along the city’s 100-plus-mile Howard W. Peak Greenway Trail System are so unnerving. Can’t individuals go out for a jog or walk without fearing an attack?
I heard that very question from an executive I have known for years who lives near Hardberger Park and has stopped jogging on the creek Trailways.
“The recent law enforcement statement that the different murders probably were not committed by the same person unnerved me even more,” she said. “I was hoping there would be a big arrest and the cases solved. Now it looks like there might be more than one predator out there.”
Last year, officials had to calm fears, quite reasonable fears, in the downtown community after four different homicides in the space of three months were reported, according to the Express-News. It didn’t help that one of the killings occurred outside the Grand Hyatt, another as the victim left the Alamodome, and a third at Market Square during Fiesta.
My own bias is that most shootings occur as domestic violence, or they happen inside or outside dodgy bars. These days, I avoid big crowds where alcohol is served because a certain number of people are packing firearms, and individuals under the influence are more likely to act rashly. Yet the downtown murders only included one person at a bar while seated outside on the patio.
In other words, ask me for my perception of crime downtown, and I am likely to say it’s a problem. Better than last year, but still a problem. But don’t ask me to back that up with the numbers.
