113. The Last Word - Tariffs Hit Home in San Antonio

Bob Rivard [00:00:04]:
Welcome to The Last Word, my weekly commentary on life and work in San Antonio and Texas. One of my favorite dead poets, T. S. Eliot, coined the phrase, April is the cruelest month. It is the very first line of his classic poem, The Wasteland. Elliott was a Midwesterner. He renounced his US citizenship, though, to become a British subject, and he wrote that line to reflect the dispirited feeling that descends on people who live in cold climes when they're denied the arrival of a warm renewing spring. Here in Texas, we have our own source of gloom this April.

Bob Rivard [00:00:41]:
There is the increasingly overheated climate that we already saw beginning in March with days in the nineties and the multiyear drought that grips the state now and threatens another season of terrible wildfires. And now San Antonians have another reason to be gloomy this April, president Trump's tariffs. I've been predicting for months now the negative impact San Antonio will experience as the Trump administration turned against Canada and Mexico, our principal trading partners, and our neighbors to the North and South. Toyota and the city's advanced manufacturing economy represent a significant success story here over the last seventeen years. Now it could prove to be our Achilles' heel. Tariffs will raise the cost of manufactured parts imported here and and materials and finished goods exported from the city. The overwhelming majority of economists nationwide cite tariffs as inflationary and ultimately self inflicted harm in a global marketplace. Yet each week seems to bring a new threat of tariffs from the White House and an aggrieved president who seems to wear a permanent scowl as he takes aim at longtime allies and trading partners.

Bob Rivard [00:01:54]:
Tariffs, a dubious economic tool widely rejected over the last century, have now become a tool of political retribution. Now a new study released by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce cites San Antonio as the city that will suffer the greatest negative impact in a North American trade war, according to an article published this week in the San Antonio Express News. The Canadian report cites San Antonio, New Braunfels as The US metropolitan area most dependent on its exports to Canada. The economic damage cannot be measured yet, but as all three nations now engage in a war of tariffs, the outlook is highly negative. Jenna Salcedo Herrera, CEO and president of Greater SATX, said this in a statement. Tariffs threaten Texas' standing as a global trade leader, a role that San Antonio businesses actively work to maintain. She's right. Consumers, of course, will pay the price as the cost of goods and services is elevated by 25 to 50% tariffs.

Bob Rivard [00:02:59]:
Where it ends now, nobody knows. I expect buyer's remorse to set in as voters feel the impact of Trump's insistence on remaking the world order, alienating long time partners and allies. At the same time, he embraces dictators, autocrats, and fringe political parties that advocate far right policies. The anti immigrant wave sweeping Washington and much of the country will have its own negative impact as undesirable entry level jobs go unfilled. The failure of past presidents in congress to implement comprehensive immigration reform, which would allow for the orderly legal inflow of immigrant workers and their families, has led to the present circumstances. Immigrants in the country now are being treated as criminals fit only for deportation, or even worse, incarceration in countries where there is little rule of law. Citizens can actually do very little about that right now, but midterm elections will be upon us next year. It will come as no surprise if voters choose to return the US house to democratic rule simply to act as a brake on Trump's most destructive impulses.

Bob Rivard [00:04:14]:
In the meantime, you can contact Texas's two Republican senators, but don't expect much help. Both senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn once dismissed Trump as a blowhard unfit for the presidency. But their own political survival has led both men to sheepishly embrace president Trump and his policies, even if they privately probably remain skeptical at best. April indeed is shaping up to be the cruelest month. That's my last word for this week. Thank you for listening. Please visit our big city small town website and sign up for Monday Musings, our free weekly newsletter. You can click on newsletters to read our April edition, and please give us a thumbs up on social media.

Bob Rivard [00:05:00]:
We will see you next week. Please share this episode with friends and colleagues, and do sign up for Monday Musings, our weekly newsletter at bigcitysmalltown.com. Big City Small Town is brought to you by Western Urban, building the city our children want to call home, and Geekdom, where startups are born and smart ideas become businesses. Our producer is Corey Eames, video by Eric at Rempel, and sound engineering by Alfie de la Garza of Sound Crane Audio. We will see you next week.